The Black Death

Inflation, Prices, and the Cost of Living

The Black Death had complex and sometimes contradictory effects on prices and the cost of living. In the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, the prices of some goods rose sharply while others fell, creating a volatile economic environment. Over the longer term, the interaction of wage increases, population decline, and changes in production patterns produced a distinctive pattern of price movements that shaped the economic experience of the post-plague period.

The Immediate Price Shock

In the months immediately following the plague, prices moved in contradictory directions. The prices of manufactured goods and imported luxuries rose sharply, as the disruption of production and trade reduced supply. The prices of some foodstuffs also rose temporarily, as the disruption of agriculture caused local shortages.

At the same time, the prices of land and property fell, as the reduced population meant less demand for housing and farmland. Rents declined, and the value of real estate dropped. The heirs of plague victims, who inherited property they did not need or could not manage, often sold at reduced prices, further depressing the market.

This pattern — rising prices for goods and falling prices for assets — reflected the fundamental economic reality of the post-plague world: fewer people sharing the same resources. Per capita wealth increased, but the distribution of that wealth shifted, benefiting those who sold goods and services and disadvantaging those who owned land and property.

Grain Prices and the Cost of Food

The most significant long-term price trend of the post-plague period was the decline in grain prices. With fewer mouths to feed, the demand for wheat, rye, barley, and oats fell, and the prices of these staple crops dropped accordingly. In England, grain prices in fact remained high for roughly the first generation after the plague; only from the later 1370s did wheat prices fall substantially — by something like a third over the following decades — and they stayed low through the fifteenth century. Similar declines occurred across Europe.

The fall in grain prices had significant consequences for living standards. Bread and pottage (a thick stew made from grain and vegetables) were the staple foods of the medieval diet, and the cost of grain determined the cost of living for the majority of the population. The decline in grain prices meant that workers could feed themselves more cheaply, and the resulting increase in real wages was one of the most significant economic benefits of the post-plague period.

However, the fall in grain prices was devastating for landlords and farmers who depended on grain sales for their income. The reduced profitability of arable farming was one of the principal drivers of the shift to pastoral agriculture, as landlords sought more profitable uses for their land.

The Price of Meat and Dairy

While grain prices fell, the prices of meat, dairy products, and other animal products rose or remained stable. The shift to pastoral agriculture increased the supply of meat and dairy products, but the demand for these goods also increased, as the higher real wages of workers allowed them to afford a more varied and protein-rich diet.

The result was a relative stability in the prices of animal products, which contrasted with the decline in grain prices. This price pattern reflected the changing dietary preferences of the post-plague population: workers who could now afford meat and cheese shifted their consumption away from grain-based foods, supporting the prices of animal products even as grain prices fell.

Luxury Goods and Manufactured Items

The prices of luxury goods — fine cloth, spices, precious metals, and imported materials — were affected by the disruption of trade and the concentration of wealth among fewer survivors. In the short term, the prices of imported luxuries rose as supply contracted. In the longer term, the concentration of wealth stimulated demand for these goods, and their prices remained high.

The prices of manufactured goods varied by sector. In industries where the guild system was weakened and competition increased, prices fell. In industries where skilled labour remained scarce and guild regulations were maintained, prices remained high or rose.

The Money Supply

The Black Death also affected the money supply. The concentration of wealth among fewer survivors meant that the per capita supply of coin increased, as the same amount of money was shared among fewer people. This increase in the per capita money supply may have contributed to the inflationary pressures of the post-plague period, though the effect was modest compared to the impact of changes in supply and demand.

The minting of new coin continued in the post-plague period, and some governments debased their currencies — reducing the precious metal content of coins — to increase the money supply and finance their expenditures. The resulting inflation affected different groups in different ways: debtors benefited (as the real value of their debts fell), while creditors and those on fixed incomes lost.

The Long-Term Pattern

The overall pattern of prices in the post-plague period was one of declining grain prices, stable or rising prices for animal products and luxury goods, and falling prices for land and property. This pattern persisted throughout the fifteenth century and into the early sixteenth, only reversing as the population recovered and demand for grain increased.

The long-term decline in grain prices and the rise in real wages made the post-plague period one of the most prosperous eras for the European labouring classes before the Industrial Revolution. The phrase “golden age of the English labourer,” coined by the nineteenth-century economic historian Thorold Rogers, captures this combination of high real wages, low food prices, and abundant land in the fifteenth century.